'Analysts say Iran's government may have passed the point of no return after the weekend's violent clashes between protesters and security forces in Tehran.'
For the past couple of days, social unrest in Iran intensified on a drastic scale, the remanent of presidential election in June still simmering in the hotpot!
Prior my previous observations, I would like to say that Iran is really at point of no return! (Approaching to the road of democracy).
After overturning the monarchy in 1970's by Islamic figurehead Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has been fully controlled by their leader under Islamic system. Khamenei and the present president M. Ahmadinejed (former member of IRGC) has set up Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps which become a major military, political and economic force in the country. However, as time goes by, especially shortly after Khamenei's death, Iranian is starting to reflect on the reason of isolation from Western world for decades, with more and more people going abroad to broaden their mind, rapid inflow of informations through the internet from the late 80's, people is no longer manipulated by Islamic religionism (though it still persists), young Iranian is anticipating reformations instead of sticking to the conservative feudalism. It looks clear enough that the presidential election in June, Iranian wishes to eradicate the authoritarian regime and transform into a new reforming system. With the clashes taken place head to head since June till now, people apparently become discontented with their present livelihood under "old" government and wants to create an entirely "new" system which is relevant to their desire.
This time opposition party is grasping the chance to protest during Shia Muslim festival (Ashura) has sent a strong signal significantly that people wants reformation and freedom. Iranian government has arrested several opposition leader include a former foreign minister, senior aides to H. Monsavi, also nephew of Monsavi has been shot dead on sunday's clashes which detonated "anger" amongst opposition party!
USA president has condemned the carckdown and urged Iranian government to release those "unjustly detained" immediately.
In conclusion, Iran's deamatic confrontation between the government and opposition will escalate unless both sides could come to terms at the end of the day. We can keep an eye on the outcome in due time!
2009年12月24日 星期四
Iran in 2009: A year of social upheaval and international defiance (transcript from Deutsche Welle, Germany on 25/12/2009)
'A disputed presidential election, months of unrest and violent protest, and a continuing face-off with the West over it's nuclear plans: Iran faced a year of upheaval in DW-World reviews the most important events'.
In order to review important events in 2009; besides Iran another two countries which one cannot overlooked, one is China dn the other is North Korea. Putting these countries on a broader perspective, we can see a lot of similarity. China has been under authoritarian regime (so called one communist party ruling mechanism) whereas North Korea follow suit.
During 2009 both North Korea and China fomented unrest globally and here are some typical examples per follows:-
1.From the early part of this year, USA has urged North Korea to dismantle (or abolished) the nuclear plant under scrutiny of IAEA; but strongly rejected by them. They demanded the Western power to lift all sanctions on North Korea before negotiations. Actually, China had been dominating the summit for long (including Japan, South Korea, China, USA etc.) on nuclear disarmament but ultimately in vain.
2. China is deploying over 1,500 missiles pointing at Taiwan along their coastline threatening the stability of Taiwan. All over the world knows that they tried to annex Taiwan and treated us as part of them. Meanwhile, they are instigating a war between both sides of the strait which will actually undermined the security of neighbouring Far Eastern countries! With the dramatic uprising/growth on economic power, China is trying to grap natural resources globally; such as investing heaps of cash on natural gas supply from Central Asia, buying up most of the shares on reputable coal mine over Australia, obtaining oil supply from Venezuela etc.
They are most aggressive and wish to manipulate the world for decades to come.
In my view, Iran is not so important as China/North Korea to arous upheaval upheaval even they played a rold in this respect. China and North Korea will also worthwhile for us to closely watch in 2010!
In order to review important events in 2009; besides Iran another two countries which one cannot overlooked, one is China dn the other is North Korea. Putting these countries on a broader perspective, we can see a lot of similarity. China has been under authoritarian regime (so called one communist party ruling mechanism) whereas North Korea follow suit.
During 2009 both North Korea and China fomented unrest globally and here are some typical examples per follows:-
1.From the early part of this year, USA has urged North Korea to dismantle (or abolished) the nuclear plant under scrutiny of IAEA; but strongly rejected by them. They demanded the Western power to lift all sanctions on North Korea before negotiations. Actually, China had been dominating the summit for long (including Japan, South Korea, China, USA etc.) on nuclear disarmament but ultimately in vain.
2. China is deploying over 1,500 missiles pointing at Taiwan along their coastline threatening the stability of Taiwan. All over the world knows that they tried to annex Taiwan and treated us as part of them. Meanwhile, they are instigating a war between both sides of the strait which will actually undermined the security of neighbouring Far Eastern countries! With the dramatic uprising/growth on economic power, China is trying to grap natural resources globally; such as investing heaps of cash on natural gas supply from Central Asia, buying up most of the shares on reputable coal mine over Australia, obtaining oil supply from Venezuela etc.
They are most aggressive and wish to manipulate the world for decades to come.
In my view, Iran is not so important as China/North Korea to arous upheaval upheaval even they played a rold in this respect. China and North Korea will also worthwhile for us to closely watch in 2010!
2009年12月21日 星期一
Social unrest 'on the rise' in China (transcript from BBC, UK on 22/12/2009)
'Social unrest is on the rise in China, according an analysis by a Chinese think-tank'.
When I gone through this article I could only say that our ruling KMT party is not at all realized the critical situation Taiwan is now confronting!.
In accordance with the report, urban-rural income gap in China is widening, majority of Chinese people still cannot jump out of poverty (extreme) regardless of those middle class emerged. We have to bear in mind that these people only share very small proportion within the population as a whole. In fact deep resentment amongst the poor has been accumulating over the past few decades. These people has been experiencing unfair treatment and power abuses by government officials on many occasions. (Especially during the land dispute that local government grap from the peasants in rural region).
I would like to elaborate that chinese ethnic group cannot be justified by general practices; i.e. after few thousands years of education on "confucism", people has been taught to be obedient to superior, patriotic to their motherland, forbid to object leader's views/command. By the same token, Chinese people did not have a clue on "democracy" looks like, also literacy is at the lowest level in contrast with developed world. (May be classified at the bottom of the list).
Taiwan has been located too close to this authoritarian regime who aims to annex our nation; with over 1,500 missiles pointing at us, instead KMT government is embracing China and ignoring the sheer fact that we are of two different nations. The more Taiwan inclined towards China (no matter economically), the faster we will be diminished (becoming part of China).
Just imagine China has to deal with heaps of domestic issues; such as sustaining economic growth, stabilize social unrest, and build up a "harmonious society" (their slogan). In case one day the time bomb exploded, aiwan will be hardest hit and falls into a catastrophic scenario (even worst than climate change chaos)!
I am most concerned about KMT government's tendency towards Taiwan's sovereignty, if our circumstances persist and relinquish our right of self-determination, Taiwan will become a province of China shortly.
At the present moment, China's negotiator Chen Yunlin is discussing trade pact (ECFA) withu sin Taichung and our KMT government has given him "royal treatment" and restricted Taiwanese to speak their mind/express their views. KMT treated Taiwanese citizen like mobs and deployed heavy polic forces as to block our voices. It seems to me that martial law is underway on our motherland, if one says Taiwan is "democratized", I can argue that we still have a long long way to go.
God bless Taiwan!
When I gone through this article I could only say that our ruling KMT party is not at all realized the critical situation Taiwan is now confronting!.
In accordance with the report, urban-rural income gap in China is widening, majority of Chinese people still cannot jump out of poverty (extreme) regardless of those middle class emerged. We have to bear in mind that these people only share very small proportion within the population as a whole. In fact deep resentment amongst the poor has been accumulating over the past few decades. These people has been experiencing unfair treatment and power abuses by government officials on many occasions. (Especially during the land dispute that local government grap from the peasants in rural region).
I would like to elaborate that chinese ethnic group cannot be justified by general practices; i.e. after few thousands years of education on "confucism", people has been taught to be obedient to superior, patriotic to their motherland, forbid to object leader's views/command. By the same token, Chinese people did not have a clue on "democracy" looks like, also literacy is at the lowest level in contrast with developed world. (May be classified at the bottom of the list).
Taiwan has been located too close to this authoritarian regime who aims to annex our nation; with over 1,500 missiles pointing at us, instead KMT government is embracing China and ignoring the sheer fact that we are of two different nations. The more Taiwan inclined towards China (no matter economically), the faster we will be diminished (becoming part of China).
Just imagine China has to deal with heaps of domestic issues; such as sustaining economic growth, stabilize social unrest, and build up a "harmonious society" (their slogan). In case one day the time bomb exploded, aiwan will be hardest hit and falls into a catastrophic scenario (even worst than climate change chaos)!
I am most concerned about KMT government's tendency towards Taiwan's sovereignty, if our circumstances persist and relinquish our right of self-determination, Taiwan will become a province of China shortly.
At the present moment, China's negotiator Chen Yunlin is discussing trade pact (ECFA) withu sin Taichung and our KMT government has given him "royal treatment" and restricted Taiwanese to speak their mind/express their views. KMT treated Taiwanese citizen like mobs and deployed heavy polic forces as to block our voices. It seems to me that martial law is underway on our motherland, if one says Taiwan is "democratized", I can argue that we still have a long long way to go.
God bless Taiwan!
2009年12月17日 星期四
Temperatures to rise 3% even with a deal:leak (transcript from ABC, Australia on 18/12/2009)
'A UN report leaked from Copenhagen climate talks suggests that global temperatures will rise by an average of 3 degrees Celsius if all the emissions cuts offered so far are emplemented.'
It was shocking when I read the news because after such a long discussion during the past 13 days in Copenhagen, nothing has been finalized even though little progress made with the aid on funding from EU (about 3.2 Billions Euro is agreed preliminarily).
From such leaked report, it clearly stated even if the offer on carbon emission so far in the summit is fully implemented, global temperature will rise to 3 degrees Celsius on the average, which means it would be tracking for the worst scenario; extreme weather, rising sea level that would swallow up Pacific nations.
As a matter of fact, Pacific nations are talking about a 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature rise by the turn of the century whereas wealthy countries is thinking of a 2 degrees Celsius rise as a maximum.
To my points of view, if situation in the summit still persists, there will not be an ambitious, constructive, feasible treaty taking place when the summit concludes today! At this point of time, we only have 24 hours to go for all nations to break the deadlocks between them.
USA has already insisted that it would be better to leave Copenhagen with no deal rather than a bad one! I agreed that is the sheer fact that if not all nations comes to compromise and back down on their stance to reach common ground, it would be a waste of time and money to hold the summit at the end of the day.
Nevertheless, in case we do have more time; say 4 weeks instead of a fortnight to discuss fully on all nation's problems and differences, may be we could come to a successful conclusion instead of seeing chaos during the summit this time.
Well, we still have one day to go, I anticipate those 120 leaders could work hand in hand as to save our Planet!
It was shocking when I read the news because after such a long discussion during the past 13 days in Copenhagen, nothing has been finalized even though little progress made with the aid on funding from EU (about 3.2 Billions Euro is agreed preliminarily).
From such leaked report, it clearly stated even if the offer on carbon emission so far in the summit is fully implemented, global temperature will rise to 3 degrees Celsius on the average, which means it would be tracking for the worst scenario; extreme weather, rising sea level that would swallow up Pacific nations.
As a matter of fact, Pacific nations are talking about a 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature rise by the turn of the century whereas wealthy countries is thinking of a 2 degrees Celsius rise as a maximum.
To my points of view, if situation in the summit still persists, there will not be an ambitious, constructive, feasible treaty taking place when the summit concludes today! At this point of time, we only have 24 hours to go for all nations to break the deadlocks between them.
USA has already insisted that it would be better to leave Copenhagen with no deal rather than a bad one! I agreed that is the sheer fact that if not all nations comes to compromise and back down on their stance to reach common ground, it would be a waste of time and money to hold the summit at the end of the day.
Nevertheless, in case we do have more time; say 4 weeks instead of a fortnight to discuss fully on all nation's problems and differences, may be we could come to a successful conclusion instead of seeing chaos during the summit this time.
Well, we still have one day to go, I anticipate those 120 leaders could work hand in hand as to save our Planet!
2009年12月14日 星期一
Get to work, urges Copenhagen climate change summit head (transcript from BBC, UK on 15/12/2009)
'The president of the UN climate summit has urged delegates to "get to work" after protests from developing nations forced a suspension of several hours'.
After reading this article, all I can say is; "ah what a mess!". Delegates of developing nations have staged a 2-hour walkout during the talk yesterday morning, it was organized by the G77-China bloc (represents 130 small, mostly African nations). They have accused Danish minister Connie Hedgegaard had violated democratic process. However, Connie reiterated that the Kyoto Protocol were not sidelined, but trying to pursue the two tracks continue to negotiate.
As the summit is drawing closer to the final stage (finished this Friday), no agreements has yet been drummed up, I am afraid that nothing could be materialized in case the difference between all nations cannot be bridged at the end of the day; such as whether or not Kyoto Protocol could be extended after 2012 or a new legal binding treaty could be drafted in this summit? I strongly sensed that developing nations (especially African nations) is reluctant to commit themselves during the discussion because they claimed that carbon emissions mainly come from developed nations whereby they are sustaining at a low level in this respect.
Furthermore, rich nations should pay their climate debts in cash and also by reducing carbon emissions.
In my view, the deadlock is; rich nations wants to legislate a comprehensive legal binding treaty this time as to include developing antions whom ought to take up the obligations on climate change, but G-77 China bloc insists to continue sticking to Kyoto protocol as they can be skipped from releant regulations (in accordance with Kyoto Protocol, it doesn't compel developing nations to cut carbon emissions but rich nations has to implement same).
Another point is; within 192 nations represented, only about 37 nations are member of Kyoto Protocol; therefore, we can predict that most of the participants will be unwilling to extend the Kyoto Protocol for the sake of their interest, on the contrary, they wish to draft an entirely new treaty as to create a fair platform for all nations to play their role in climate change.
Subsequently, I really prayed that encouraging outcome will emerge before the summit conclude this Friday, let us keep our fingers crossed!.
After reading this article, all I can say is; "ah what a mess!". Delegates of developing nations have staged a 2-hour walkout during the talk yesterday morning, it was organized by the G77-China bloc (represents 130 small, mostly African nations). They have accused Danish minister Connie Hedgegaard had violated democratic process. However, Connie reiterated that the Kyoto Protocol were not sidelined, but trying to pursue the two tracks continue to negotiate.
As the summit is drawing closer to the final stage (finished this Friday), no agreements has yet been drummed up, I am afraid that nothing could be materialized in case the difference between all nations cannot be bridged at the end of the day; such as whether or not Kyoto Protocol could be extended after 2012 or a new legal binding treaty could be drafted in this summit? I strongly sensed that developing nations (especially African nations) is reluctant to commit themselves during the discussion because they claimed that carbon emissions mainly come from developed nations whereby they are sustaining at a low level in this respect.
Furthermore, rich nations should pay their climate debts in cash and also by reducing carbon emissions.
In my view, the deadlock is; rich nations wants to legislate a comprehensive legal binding treaty this time as to include developing antions whom ought to take up the obligations on climate change, but G-77 China bloc insists to continue sticking to Kyoto protocol as they can be skipped from releant regulations (in accordance with Kyoto Protocol, it doesn't compel developing nations to cut carbon emissions but rich nations has to implement same).
Another point is; within 192 nations represented, only about 37 nations are member of Kyoto Protocol; therefore, we can predict that most of the participants will be unwilling to extend the Kyoto Protocol for the sake of their interest, on the contrary, they wish to draft an entirely new treaty as to create a fair platform for all nations to play their role in climate change.
Subsequently, I really prayed that encouraging outcome will emerge before the summit conclude this Friday, let us keep our fingers crossed!.
2009年12月10日 星期四
EU summit struggles to agree climate pledge (transcript from BBC, UK on 11/12/2009)
'EU leaders have so far failed to agree how much aid the bloc will give to developing nations to tackle the effects of global warming'.
During the past few days since climate change summit starts, situations falls into "chaos", according to Australian activist Wendy Miller's report, protester is staying peaceful up to now, (40,000 people is involved at the moment), but said things will turn sour next Wednesday as thousands of protesters vowing to take over the UN meeting. On the other hand, Billionaire George Soros make a flying visit to UN climate change summit and unveiled a proposal that IMF (International Monetary Fund) use it's gold reserve as the collateral for green fund. (US$100 Billion).
EU leaders is attending a 2 days summit in Brussels pledging for a 6 Billion Euros funds over 3 years jointly contributed amongst EU members, however, they still struggling to convince poorer Eastern European countries to contribute.
Germany, France is still hanging around without any commitment so far whereas significant contributions comes from UK, Sweden, Denamrk and Holland totalling 2.1 Billions Euros.
During the Summit in Copenhagen, USA and China are at odds! China criticised USA failing to provide financial support to developing countries during past 17 years, they should pay 1% of their GDP each year to solve the crisis. China also blamed that USA and other rich countries for causing global warming.
USA has rebuffed China that China would not be compensated by the aid funding as the world's no.1 polluter and have capacity to pay their own way!
All I could say is; every nation is pointing fingers to each other without taking up any obligations/responsibilities to retrospect they already undermined the environment with all their deeds in past decades. I am now really sketic about the outcome of the climate change summit with so many problems to tackle, anyhow, let us hoped for the best and prepared for the worst.
God bless the World!
During the past few days since climate change summit starts, situations falls into "chaos", according to Australian activist Wendy Miller's report, protester is staying peaceful up to now, (40,000 people is involved at the moment), but said things will turn sour next Wednesday as thousands of protesters vowing to take over the UN meeting. On the other hand, Billionaire George Soros make a flying visit to UN climate change summit and unveiled a proposal that IMF (International Monetary Fund) use it's gold reserve as the collateral for green fund. (US$100 Billion).
EU leaders is attending a 2 days summit in Brussels pledging for a 6 Billion Euros funds over 3 years jointly contributed amongst EU members, however, they still struggling to convince poorer Eastern European countries to contribute.
Germany, France is still hanging around without any commitment so far whereas significant contributions comes from UK, Sweden, Denamrk and Holland totalling 2.1 Billions Euros.
During the Summit in Copenhagen, USA and China are at odds! China criticised USA failing to provide financial support to developing countries during past 17 years, they should pay 1% of their GDP each year to solve the crisis. China also blamed that USA and other rich countries for causing global warming.
USA has rebuffed China that China would not be compensated by the aid funding as the world's no.1 polluter and have capacity to pay their own way!
All I could say is; every nation is pointing fingers to each other without taking up any obligations/responsibilities to retrospect they already undermined the environment with all their deeds in past decades. I am now really sketic about the outcome of the climate change summit with so many problems to tackle, anyhow, let us hoped for the best and prepared for the worst.
God bless the World!
2009年12月7日 星期一
Climate conference opens with a mixture of warnings and assurances (transcript from Deutsche Welle, Germany on 08/12/2009)
'The biggest climate conference in history opened in Copenhagen with a stark reminder of the consequences of a failure to act on flobal warming, but also with assurances that a legally-binding deal is within reach.'
At the opening ceremony Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen urged 15,000 negotiators from 192 nations to hammer out a "strong and ambitious" deal. I fully agreed with his speech and stay "cautiously optimistic". The reason is because most countries around the world already alarmed by the natural disaster in place so frequently during past decades. In the wake of the hacked emails from British University recently, which has aroused some argument about whether or not the threat been exaggerated by scientists.
In my personal opinion, evidence could tell the truth which extreme draught as well as extreme heatwave has been all over the regions that supposed to be so humid/cool prior decades ago.
Global waming is already at risk and caused by human activities, continue to ignore reality then environmental catastrophie will be inevitable. In case political will is not present to bridge the difference during this conference, I don't think there would be any fruitful result.
We have seen that USA and China has already outlined their position and committed their target on the table in this conference, I think it's a positive sign that some sort of deal might be striken at the end of the day. As I have reiterated lately that every nation should be obliged and responsible to their next generations as to restrain the pace of global warming at any cost.
To summarize my views on this topic, I am hopeful that all nations have to stick to "deeds that matters, not only words". On the other hand, public scrutiny will be playing an important role on such issue (which we have seen 226 environmental groups handed an online petition by 10 million people around the world demanding to sign up a "fair, ambitious and binding" climate treaty this time).
Well, we can closely monitor the latest development on the outcome in due time!
At the opening ceremony Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen urged 15,000 negotiators from 192 nations to hammer out a "strong and ambitious" deal. I fully agreed with his speech and stay "cautiously optimistic". The reason is because most countries around the world already alarmed by the natural disaster in place so frequently during past decades. In the wake of the hacked emails from British University recently, which has aroused some argument about whether or not the threat been exaggerated by scientists.
In my personal opinion, evidence could tell the truth which extreme draught as well as extreme heatwave has been all over the regions that supposed to be so humid/cool prior decades ago.
Global waming is already at risk and caused by human activities, continue to ignore reality then environmental catastrophie will be inevitable. In case political will is not present to bridge the difference during this conference, I don't think there would be any fruitful result.
We have seen that USA and China has already outlined their position and committed their target on the table in this conference, I think it's a positive sign that some sort of deal might be striken at the end of the day. As I have reiterated lately that every nation should be obliged and responsible to their next generations as to restrain the pace of global warming at any cost.
To summarize my views on this topic, I am hopeful that all nations have to stick to "deeds that matters, not only words". On the other hand, public scrutiny will be playing an important role on such issue (which we have seen 226 environmental groups handed an online petition by 10 million people around the world demanding to sign up a "fair, ambitious and binding" climate treaty this time).
Well, we can closely monitor the latest development on the outcome in due time!
2009年12月3日 星期四
Top climate scientist hopes Copenhagen fails (transcript from ABC, Australia on 04/12/2009)
'The scientist who convinced the world that global warming was a looming danger says the planet will be better off if next week's Copenhagen climate change summit ends in collapse.'
I was shocked to read this article in the first instance, but after reading the full content, it's really true on what Mr. James Hansen said; prior interviewing by the Guardian newspaper, he piekced up the point that any agreement to emerge from the meeting will be so flawed that it would be better to start again from scratch.
Just imagine if we rely on caps and ETS (proposed by Australian Government), it doesn't help to reduce our CO2 emission, but only allowing polluters to buy the right continue to pollute our environment. A lot of climate change skeptics argued that CO2 emission and greenhouse gases were not caused by human activities, they totally denied all datas and proofs given by scientists!
Well, let's not dig our head into the sand and face reality, we are confronting a lot of natural disaster which never happened before; such as tsunami, extreme draught, extreme rainstorm which caused flooding, rising of sea level, rising of global temperature, dramatic speed of Glaciers melting at the Arctic, once we put up altogether, we could realized that climate change is really taking place and cuased by human actitivties.
If we want to reduce CO2 emission, we must start from ourselves, such as using less air conditioners and refrigerator, avoid using chemicals (CFC) stuff, such as hair spray etc., at the same token, we have to put up a tax on carbon emission on those big polluters, refrain from deforestation (or even stop completely), educate people about devastation of climate change bring to our next generations.
By all means, we could be living in a better and cleaner environment when everyone is playing his/her role as stated above. I am really hopeful that some conclusion could be drawn after the Copenhagen climate change summit next week, we will wait and see!
I was shocked to read this article in the first instance, but after reading the full content, it's really true on what Mr. James Hansen said; prior interviewing by the Guardian newspaper, he piekced up the point that any agreement to emerge from the meeting will be so flawed that it would be better to start again from scratch.
Just imagine if we rely on caps and ETS (proposed by Australian Government), it doesn't help to reduce our CO2 emission, but only allowing polluters to buy the right continue to pollute our environment. A lot of climate change skeptics argued that CO2 emission and greenhouse gases were not caused by human activities, they totally denied all datas and proofs given by scientists!
Well, let's not dig our head into the sand and face reality, we are confronting a lot of natural disaster which never happened before; such as tsunami, extreme draught, extreme rainstorm which caused flooding, rising of sea level, rising of global temperature, dramatic speed of Glaciers melting at the Arctic, once we put up altogether, we could realized that climate change is really taking place and cuased by human actitivties.
If we want to reduce CO2 emission, we must start from ourselves, such as using less air conditioners and refrigerator, avoid using chemicals (CFC) stuff, such as hair spray etc., at the same token, we have to put up a tax on carbon emission on those big polluters, refrain from deforestation (or even stop completely), educate people about devastation of climate change bring to our next generations.
By all means, we could be living in a better and cleaner environment when everyone is playing his/her role as stated above. I am really hopeful that some conclusion could be drawn after the Copenhagen climate change summit next week, we will wait and see!
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