2010年4月8日 星期四

Geithner set for talks on Yuan during visit to China (transcript from BBC, UK on 08/04/2010)

'US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is due in China for Talks with Vice-Premier Wang Qishan to discuss a long-running dispute over the Yuan.'
Without prejudice, the meeting between US & china on the dispute of devaluation/revaluation of Yuan would end up without fruitful result! The point is that China solely depending on export market as to expand their economic growth and sustain stability in their country, contrary to their import market which is relatively small to a limited percentage of population. In accordance with previous reports, it reveals that the gap between wealth and poverty becomes bigger and bigger also the Genni index reaches it's critical point. About 150-200 million peasants/workers are living below the UN standard of poverty threshold (US$1/day). I am highly skeptical that how could they strike the balance with those minority group who afford to spend when the export market becoming sluggish?
On the whole, if we put up with other prospect into considerations; such as social unrest; bureaucracy and red tapes; bribery and corruptions etc., we could hardly imagine that they allow the Yuan to revaluate, besides due to the global financial crisis still on the run, demand is obviously lower than supply (dut to the continuous mass production by China that causes oversupply). China has to press their currency at low level as to sell more products to the world otherwise they will be facing an economic downturn once Yuan is revaluated!
One chief economist from a government tahintank already speculated that China rather depeg the Yuan from the dollar instead of let them float.
Subsequently, the Yuan issue will be on the agenda next week when B. Obama meets with Hu Jintao in Washington next week. We will keep an eye on the outcome in due time!

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