2009年10月30日 星期五

US recession ends as growth returns (transcript from ABC, Australia 30/10/2009)

'The US economy has climbed out of its worst recession since World War II but there is concern that this may only be a statistical recovery'.
In accordance to some economists US is starting to jump out of recession due to the dramatic growth of 3.5% GDP last month, on the other hand, improvement of sales on new home for first home buyer also put some momentum of optimism. figures on better car sales last month also giving hope for economi8c recovery.
However, I have different views prior studying details of past few months; based on following points:-
1. The unemployment rate of USA in September 2009 has been standing at 9.8% which is too high to be justified. This is contradictory because once you lost your job, you will be cautious to spend (even though one could rely on unemployment benefit). As a result, consumer will be dragging their feet to consume generously unless necessary, how could we expect our economy be stimulated without this main driver?
2. Per my observations, American's spending behaviour hasn't been changed for decades; i.e. they could spent $1 while earning $0.50 , in other words, these folks are using debts to cover their livelihood. By all means, debts will become higher and higher (e.g. the sub-prime mortgage disaster). I am highly skeptical they could end up with economic growth in case such condition persists.
3. In my opinion, dramatic improvement of economic condition during past few months in the States is mainly due to US$787 billion rescue package handed down by the government earlier. Nevertheless, when these funds dried up, the situation will be winding back to where they are; circumstances will be deteriorating deeper into recession!
To summarize my point, US government should resuffle their strategy and try to find out correct remedy as to save the recession not only for themselves as well as for the entire world.

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